Since 2025, tungsten market has experienced a historic surge. Data shows that the price of tungsten-gold ore has soared from 143,000 CNY/ton at the beginning of the year to 245,000 CNY/ton. The price of ammonium paratungstate (APT) has exceeded 365,000 CNY/ton, and the price of tungsten powder has reached 570,000 CNY/ton. The overall price increase for the entire supply chain is approximately 80%, setting new historical highs in both price and increase. This surge is by no means accidental, but rather a "resource storm" created by the combined forces of supply chain contraction, surging demand, policy adjustments, and market hoarding.
From a global resource perspective, the scarcity and strategic value of tungsten metal are particularly prominent. Currently, the world's proven tungsten reserves are approximately 4.6 million tons. As the core supplier of tungsten resources, China holds an absolute dominant position. Not only does it hold 52% of global reserves, but it also contributes 82% of annual production. For this reason, tungsten has been included in the EU's list of 34 critical raw materials and is a core resource among the United States' 50 critical minerals. In contrast, the United States' domestic tungsten production only meets 15% of domestic demand. High-end tungsten products, such as military alloys, are particularly dependent on imports. Of these imports, China has long accounted for 32% of the historical supply. This supply-demand imbalance has paved the way for subsequent market fluctuations.
On the supply chain side, the Ministry of Natural Resources of China's first batch of tungsten ore mining quotas for 2025 are only 58,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%. This reduction was made by 2,370 tons in the main producing area of Jiangxi, and the quotas for low-grade mining areas in Hubei and Anhui were almost zero, directly leading to a tightening of raw material supply. Demand is booming across multiple sectors. In the photovoltaic industry, the penetration rate of tungsten diamond wire is expected to jump from 20% in 2024 to 40% in 2025, with global demand exceeding 4,500 tons. In the new energy vehicle sector, adding tungsten to lithium battery cathodes boosts energy density, leading to a 22% year-on-year increase in consumption in 2025, reaching 1,500 tons. More noteworthy is the nuclear fusion sector, where projects such as China's ongoing compact fusion energy experimental device are expected to generate over 10,000 tons of high-performance tungsten alloys.
Policy-level regulation has further exacerbated market tensions. In February 2025, China implemented a "one-item, one-certificate" export control system for 25 tungsten products, including ammonium ditungstate. Exports plummeted by 25% in the first quarter. Furthermore, continued environmental pressures led to the closure of 18 substandard mines due to tailings pond management and wastewater discharge upgrades, and a freeze on new production capacity approvals. Tungsten-gold mine production fell 5.84% year-on-year in the first half of the year. Furthermore, the hoarding behavior of intermediaries in the supply chain has exacerbated the situation. Currently, the stockpile has reached 40,000 tons, accounting for over 35% of the total tungsten-gold ore supply, further widening the market supply-demand gap.
Tungsten's strategic value has long surpassed that of ordinary industrial metals, becoming a key bargaining chip in great power competition. From a defense perspective alone, a tungsten carbide armor-piercing round, with a density of 15.8 grams per cubic centimeter, can easily penetrate half a meter of armor, crumbling steel plates like a hot knife through butter. The US military industry consumes over 6,000 tons of tungsten annually, and half of its weapons production lines rely on tungsten. A supply disruption would paralyze the production of M1A1 tank shells and AGM-158 missiles. The Pentagon has even designated a tungsten supply cut from China as its highest level, a "red risk," predicting that if implemented, F-35 fighter production would halt within 18 months. Faced with such severe supply chain dependence, why don't Europe and the United States rebuild their domestic tungsten supply chains? Data suggests the answer: a reconstruction plan would take over 15 years and require an investment of €200 billion. In reality, China's control over tungsten resources goes far beyond its superficial advantage of holding the world's largest reserves. Instead, it has built comprehensive industry chain barriers, from mining and processing, smelting and processing, to deep processing, export controls, and the export of technical standards. This has enabled it to achieve comprehensive dominance, from industrial layout to international rules.
This "silent war" over tungsten resources is reshaping the power structure of high-end manufacturing in the 21st century. As the importance of strategic resources becomes increasingly prominent, whoever controls the discourse over these core resources will seize the initiative in future global industrial competition.
